In March of 2016 — before either had won their party’s presidential nomination – I wrote a piece explaining how Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton in the November 2016 general election. It’s March of another presidential election year, so I feel obligated to weigh in again — to explain why the voters of this country will oust Joe Biden and return Donald Trump to the White House eight months from now.
– Trump’s fury and cynicism match the mood of most of the electorate. While many Americans feel disrespected and a loss of dignity, it’s not just white rural rage that will propel Trump back to the White House. More than 75 percent of the country feel that the United States is on the wrong track. There’s a bitterness and distrust that pervade the electorate. Voters are anti-institution and against whomever is in power – the deep state and the swamp. Trump is perfectly attuned to this unhappiness.
– Biden has failed to produce tangible improvements in the lives of those who believed in him and voted for him in 2020. Their daily economic struggles are even worse than they were in 2020. Sixty-four percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Higher rents and higher food prices mean paychecks don’t go as far.
— A large majority of voters — Democratic and Republican — want change. They want a different political system and different economic system which will genuinely improve their lives. They feel that Joe Biden will continue the status quo while Donald Trump will bring change.
– Biden exacerbates the anger of voters by repeating that the economy has grown, GDP is up, and unemployment is down during his presidency. The growth Biden brags about has gone not to most Americans, but to those already wealthy. Income inequality has worsened. The jobs created are part time and pay poorly.
– Related to this is the betrayal felt by many Democratic voters who believe Biden and Democrats take them for granted. The Biden administration has shown an indifference toward and disdain for the very people they rely on for votes. Biden has failed to deliver results for poor, Latino, and black voters. Democrats don’t understand the lives of black people or their problems, and don’t seem to care about them. These are people who can’t afford housing or food. There are no good jobs where they live. They want better housing, better neighborhoods. They want full-time jobs that pay more, student-loan relief, voter protections. Biden promised these things in 2020 but has not delivered on those promises.
– The Democratic Party has become very unpopular. To many voters, it’s seen as more extreme. Democrats are losing Asian-American, Latino, white working class, noncollege- educated voters all of whom are migrating to the Republican Party. Culturally conservative nonwhite voters have become more comfortable with the Republican Party. These voters have become convinced that the Republican Party is better at keeping America prosperous, at keeping America safe.
– On the issues of most concern to voters – jobs, high prices, inflation, immigration, crime – significant majorities believe that the Republican Party will do a better job than the Democratic Party.
– Biden talks often about what his administration has done. But most voters can’t see how these achievements have improved their lives. And besides, this isn’t the point. Elections are about the future and not the past. Biden offers no vision or promise of what he will do if reelected. Trump offers a vision and a promise
– Biden’s campaign – just like Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign – boils down to this: Trump is bad. That’s not an inspiring message. And when he attacks MAGA Republicans, Biden sounds like Hillary Clinton calling out a basket of deplorables.
– Biden’s role in the war between Israel and Hamas has made it impossible for millions of progressives to vote for him.
– Biden looks and acts too old. He gives the impression that he’s personally weak. American voters want a president – a commander in chief – who looks and acts strong — like a world leader. Trump looks and acts stronger.
– And finally . . . and this is something that no one I’ve read ever mentions: At the time of the 2020 election in which Biden defeated Trump, the coronavirus – covid 19 – was tearing through the country killing tens of thousands of people each month. The country was locked down and scared, and Trump seemed incapable of containing the virus. There was not yet a vaccine to protect people from the often-fatal disease. People voted for Biden because they had no faith in the Trump administration’s ability to protect them and halt the mounting death toll. That fear cost Trump the election. Today, while covid-19 is still with us, the fear is gone. Voters aren’t afraid to put Trump back in the White House because he will not be in charge of stopping a pandemic.
– In 2016, Trump won the election because third-party candidates – primarily Jill Stein – took votes away from Hillary Clinton. In 2020, there were no meaningful third-party candidates on the ballot to take votes away from Joe Biden — and he won. In 2024, there will be third- (and fourth-) party candidates – Bobby Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and others – who will take votes away from Joe Biden. In addition, tens of thousands of voters disillusioned by Biden – for unkept promises, his support of Israel, his seeming indifference to their personal struggles – will just stay home on election day. Biden received about 80 million votes in the 2020 general election. Even though the population of the country has increased since then, he won’t match that number in 2024.
In a pure election-day sense, Donald Trump’s path to the White House in 2024 is the same as his winning path in 2016 — win the electoral college votes of the B1G swing states. For the reasons listed above, it seems likely that he will.
