Stop saying that Trump will win reelection if the Democrats nominate democratic socialist Bernie Sanders to run against him because of Bernie’s extreme ideology.
Stop saying that Trump will win reelection if the Democrats nominate progressive Elizabeth Warren to run against him because of her progressive policies — and because she’s a woman.
And stop saying that Trump will win reelection if the Democrats nominate moderate Pete Boot-a-judge to run against him because he’s too young, too inexperienced, too moderate, too arrogant, too gay.
It doesn’t matter who’s running. It matters who’s voting. The outcome of the 2020 presidential election is set — no matter who the Democrats nominate.
Voters today are not motivated by candidates or policy goals or ideology. They’re motivated to beat the other side. A shared hatred of the other side, the other party, is what will drive voters in November. Not some shared sense of purpose. Do you really think establishment Republicans and evangelicals love President Trump because they embrace his ideology and policy goals? What ideology and policy goals? What they share — what motivates them — is their hatred for President Trump’s Democratic adversaries. Do you really think Democrats care about the difference between Medicare-for-all and Medicare-for-all-who-want-it? Don’t be ridiculous. They hate President Trump and only care about getting him out of the White House. Whichever party wins the turn-out battle will win the election — no matter who the Democrats nominate to run.
There’s no such thing any more as “the center”. There are no swing voters that either the Republicans or the Democrats need to win over in order to win the 2020 election. Everyone has a side, a tribe. No one is swinging or changing sides. Any Democratic presidential candidate (Joe Biden) who tells you the party needs to win over swing voters and moderate Republicans in order to defeat Donald Trump is an idiot. They don’t exist, and, even if they did, the Democrats don’t need them.
Everyone is frozen in place. The electorate is set in stone. It doesn’t matter who the Democratic Party nominates. No one is going to change sides, change parties. People are either voting or staying home. The election will be decided by who decides to stay home and who decides to vote. Turnout is all that will matter.
Republicans fear ruin if anyone other than Donald Trump becomes president. The Democrats fear that four more years of a Trump presidency will threaten the republic. Democrats hate Trump more than Republicans hate his foes. The Democrats’ greater level of hatred will motivate more people to vote in 2020, and to vote against Donald Trump — no matter who the Democratic candidate is.
